Sundays are usually days when I take time out to digest and dissect the six days gone by and ruminate over the patterns I see emerging. I think the present recession and sombre mood associated with it has accentuated my ability to contemplate about our weaknesses and shortcomings. Seeing and reading about institutional failures, financial losses, job cuts, pink slips I just ask myself – why and how? Why and how has the most intelligent and capable section of white collar working force landed the whole world in such a messy situation. Is it a stroke of bad luck, a quirk of chance or is there a reason, a pattern or a phenomenon?
I am not an expert in Finance so I am not the best person to delve into all the past recessions and economic cycles to find the answer to this question. What interests me is human nature, the underlying emotions behind bets all gone wrong.
One particular revelation I see surfacing again and again is the inadequacy of some of the cognitive tools we use to take decisions. It is sometimes unbelievable to see the ridiculous theories we use. Theories stemming from rhetoric, prejudices, fears, insecurities, greed and chance. It’s surprising how we fall victims to one or more of these phenomena with amazing regularity. It is equally surprising to see how our current education system accentuates these problems and complicates life further. The tendency to appear in control and the mode of self denial leads to nothing but repetition of the mistakes made by us in the past.
Many people I come across try very hard giving an impression of being very knowledgeable and intelligent. Nothing wrong in that – they are here because they are capable and work hard and they can definitely tom-tom that a bit. The problem arises when they believe that they know 99% - 100% of what is there to be known. Like a person who shows off his big personal library to all people visiting his house. The library itself is considered as an achievement, a symbol of ego and arrogance. It is not taken as a tool to understand the 99% of the world outside the realm of those books. Applying this analogy to us, however well educated and intelligent we may be, the truth is that we can never fully understand, leave alone predict any phenomena in this world. Be it financial markets, industries or marriages and love. There are always, as Nicholas Taleb says Black Swans or unpredictable events. So why do we take ourselves and our knowledge so seriously? Maybe because accepting the fact that we know very little translates into a life-long endeavour to learn, uncover, change and adapt. And this sure sounds like a hard thing! (refer to the Zen story called ‘Empty Your Cup’ at the end of my blog)
I am not simplifying our problems but trying to highlight the fact that the realisation that we are not 100% aware may lead to greater efforts in finding the truth and more exploration. It is not that this approach is 100% problem proof and we will get into a soup but maybe we will be better positioned to come out of it quickly.
Certainly we should learn to ask, to appear foolish than appear intelligent all the time and fully in control. One common thing that I hear when my friends want to praise somebody is – ‘that guy has all his fundas in life clear’. I am not sure if that is such a good thing. Isn’t some confusion a sign of cerebral activity? Isn’t it a sign that you are alive, observing, comprehending things happening around you?
I think the present credit crisis would not have happened or at least maybe the magnitude would have been lower if some of the people in charge in lending institutions in USA risked looking a little lost and confused when there was a bubble forming from a great bull market. Why were questions not asked? Patterns not seen and dissenting voices not heard? Probably because these people were so engrossed basking in the glory of the excesses that it blinded them. They could not see the potholes ahead on the road because they were always looking at the smooth journey past them. Obviously they were driving in the fast lane with only a rear view mirror telling them what the road ahead is like!
Zen Story- Empty Your Cup
One of my favourite stories concerns a Buddhist scholar and a Zen Master. The scholar had an extensive background in Buddhist Studies and was an expert on the Nirvana Sutra. He came to study with the master and after making the customary bows, asked her to teach him Zen. Then, he began to talk about his extensive doctrinal background and rambled on and on about the many sutras he had studied.
The master listened patiently and then began to make tea. When it was ready, she poured the tea into the scholar's cup until it began to overflow and run all over the floor. The scholar saw what was happening and shouted, "Stop, stop! The cup is full; you can't get anymore in."
The master stopped pouring and said: "You are like this cup; you are full of ideas about Buddha's Way. You come and ask for teaching, but your cup is full; I can't put anything in. Before I can teach you, you'll have to empty your cup."
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